An impact assessment of science and

Our work includes interpreting the results of existing biological and ecological studies, identifying data gaps, mapping the distribution of lionfish, and assisting with development of management plans. It is the first study targeting the invasion of Indo-Pacific lionfish along the U. They have become widely established along the U. Lionfish eat native fish and crustaceans in large quantities, outcompeting important commercial and recreational fisheries e.

An impact assessment of science and

What is Natural Hazard Risk? The risk from a natural hazard is determined by the combined understanding of three components: Estimating risk is an uncertain science as it involves forecasting events for which the time and location might be largely unknown.

This uncertainty is captured mathematically by the concept of probability. Reducing risk can only be achieved by decreasing the contribution from one or more of these three components. Examples of risk reduction or managing the risk in these components are: Hazard A hazard is a natural or man-made event that has the potential to cause impacts to people, buildings, infrastructure, agriculture, environmental assets and communities.

Geoscience Australia develops data and information for bushfire, earthquake, flood, nuclear explosions, severe wind e. How do we model hazard? Hazard modelling helps us understand a hazard's intensity or magnitudefrequency and source.

It is typically underpinned by mathematical models that describe the propagation of the hazard across the landscape. Without knowledge of the past, we cannot predict what might happen in the future.

Historical catalogues are used to understand the frequency of hazard events. They help us develop synthetic event sets that represent, for example, up to 10 years of events.

This allows us to understand what might be possible in the future and to prepare for events that we have not seen in our lifetime. For rarer hazards such as earthquakes, palaeoseismological investigations play a critical role in identifying and characterising individual pre-historic events that make up the neotectonic record.

Probabilistic hazard modelling considers the full synthetic event set, whereas scenario modelling considers a single event which could be taken from the synthetic set, or based on an historical event. Geoscience Australia has developed a range of open source hazard modelling tools: Exposure Exposure refers to the elements at risk from a natural or man-made hazard event.

Exposure information is about the location and characteristics, or attributes, of each of the elements and is therefore about what is at risk.

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This information feeds into a natural hazard risk analysis to identify what elements at risk are in the location, and enough information about each of the elements to help understand how they are likely to behave when subjected to natural and artificial hazards.

Understanding what is exposed to a hazard event through readily available, comprehensive and consistent national exposure information allows the Australian Government, state and territory jurisdictions and emergency management and planning agencies to make informed, evidence-based decisions to prepare, respond and recover from any events.

Vulnerability Vulnerability to natural hazards is an integral factor in understanding the true extent of risk.

An impact assessment of science and

Although there is no single definition for vulnerability, it generally refers to the impact a hazard has on people, infrastructure and the economy. This is, it asks how large an effect does a hazard of a certain severity have on a particular element at risk?

Physical vulnerability Physical vulnerability is the potential for physical impact on the built environment, infrastructure or population. Information on the vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure has been developed in countries such as the United States and in Europe, but different building techniques, standards and materials adopted in Australia require significant model calibration and testing under Australian conditions.

Vulnerability models of people to physical injury, known as casualty models, have also been developed internationally based primarily on empirical data linking the likelihood of occupants being injured or killed in the event of building damage or failure. How we model physical vulnerability? Physical vulnerability is modelled through describing a probable damage severity or economic loss for a particular type of infrastructure when it is subjected to some level of hazard.

Take for example a residential building with brick walls and a tile roof that is subjected to a particular level of ground motion due to an earthquake. Our models define the probability that the building will be in one of five damage states.

Each of those damage states has a repair cost associated with it and likely level of habitability. The overall outcomes predicted for the buildings are not necessarily correct for each specific building, but should be representative of the overall population exposed to the same hazard.

These models can be developed in a number of ways including: This knowledge can be used to develop vulnerability relationships through a variety of heuristic techniques; empirical models: A number of houses all subjected to the same wind speed would only provide one point on a damage curve. Insurance portfolio and claim data can also be used; engineering models: This type of model is difficult to develop and will require calibration against empirical data.

However it permits an assessment of what contributes most to the vulnerability, and the cost-effectiveness of various mitigation strategies to be assessed.Dec 17,  · The impact of a hazardous event depends on the elements at risk, such as; population or buildings and their associated vulnerability to damage or change as a result of the event.

Estimating risk is an uncertain science because it involves forecasting events for which the time and the location may be largely unknown.

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Environmental Impact Assessment Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is a process of evaluating the likely environmental impacts of a proposed project or development, taking into account inter-related socio-economic, cultural and human-health impacts, both beneficial and adverse.

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